Expectations for Christmas sales are higher than last year
The significance of November in Christmas commerce has increased year by year, but December is still the most important sales month of the season and of the whole year in retail trade. November is the big season for e-commerce, mainly due to the long-running Black Friday campaigns, but December is the highlight for physical stores. This year, the sales expectations for Christmas commerce are more positive than last year.
December is still by far the biggest sales month of the Christmas season, although the significance of November has grown in recent years. For example, in household technology, where the impact of Black Friday campaigns has been strongest, November has already surpassed December as a sales month.
“The importance of November for Christmas sales has increased in the entire specialty goods trade – for example, in clothing and sporting goods, in addition to household technology,” says Jaana Kurjenoja, Chief Economist of the Finnish Commerce Federation.
Overall, retail trade sales subject to value added tax in Finland totalled more than 10 billion euros in November–December last year and nearly 3,580 euros per household. The additional consumption brought on by the season here is about 300 euros per household.
“The differences between households are big. Some invest thousands of euros in Christmas, while the purchases of others are no different from everyday life. Some of the consumption also flows into foreign e-commerce,” Kurjenoja points out.
November is the season of e-commerce
November is particularly the season of e-commerce. Finns start looking for deals in online stores just over a week before Black Friday. Visits to shop pages peak during Black Friday and drop quickly after Cyber Monday.
“After Black Friday, another big spike in page visits hits on the days immediately after Christmas Eve, meaning that Finns will start looking at potential offers and sales already on Christmas Day,” Kurjenoja says.
In December, physical stores and online stores operating in Finland play an increasingly large role in Christmas shopping. As December progresses, the amount of food in the shopping cart will also increase, which strengthens the position of physical stores and online food stores.
“Concern about the timely delivery of purchased gifts guides customers to domestic shops in December. Finns also prefer to shop in physical stores more than Swedes, for example,” Kurjenoja says.
Christmas commerce is expected to grow from last year
The sales expectations of the Christmas shopping season are now more positive than last year. The Finnish Commerce Federation assesses the shopping sentiments of Finns by monitoring the number of daily visits to the websites of shops and marketplaces, among other things. In addition to the actual purchases, page visits include different types of information searching, which reflects the general interest of customers or their willingness to buy.
After a difficult early year, the number of online visits has started to increase during the autumn when compared to last year. A similar development is also indicated by a consumption indicator made by Nordea on the basis of card payment data.
“Positive Christmas expectations are also reinforced by slower inflation, employment remaining strong and the notable index increases in pensions received by many grandparents,” Kurjenoja says.
Further information: Jaana Kurjenoja, Chief Economist, tel. +358 40 820 5378, jaana.kurjenoja(at)kauppa.fi
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