Commerce expects moderate growth in Christmas sales
The Christmas season really begins in mid-November when global campaigns also attract Finnish consumers. However, December is still by far the biggest sales month of the retail sector, although the significance of November has clearly grown. The commerce sector’s outlook for the Christmas season is cautiously positive, as the purchasing power of Finns is strengthening.
Over the past ten years, the Christmas season has started slightly earlier every year, and it currently starts around mid-November. Black Friday campaigns properly start the Christmas shopping season, and the significance of November in Christmas trade has increased significantly: in home technology, for example, November is already a bigger sales month than December.
The increase in online shopping has increased the significance of both November and foreign trade for the Christmas season. However, as December progresses, shopping is mostly done domestically and in physical stores.
December is the biggest sales month for retail
Even though the importance that November has for the Christmas season has increased in recent years, December is still by far the biggest sales month of the year. The success of December sales in department stores and many areas of the speciality goods trade is critical, but it is not always possible to predict everything. In some product categories, such as clothing and sports equipment, the weather in November–December can have a major impact on the success of Christmas sales.
In November–December last year, the domestic retail trade revenue subject to value added tax totalled approximately EUR 9.9 billion, or EUR 3,460 per household. However, most of this is normal daily consumption that isn’t dependent on the season. The additional consumption brought on by the Christmas season was about EUR 236 per household. Of course, the additional consumption brought on by the season is greater, as some of the money is directed abroad and some is used for other services.
The VAT increase that entered into force last autumn before Christmas, weak consumer confidence and a warm and rainy November decreased commerce sector sales, especially in November.
“However, sales started to slightly increase in December. Moderate growth in Christmas sales is also expected this year, supported by the strengthening purchasing power of Finns”, says Jaana Kurjenoja, Chief Economist of the Finnish Commerce Federation.
The statistical sources for the Christmas trade estimates in euros are Statistics Finland’s trade estimates in euros, and the analysis was carried out by Jaana Kurjenoja, Chief Economist of the Finnish Commerce Federation.
For further information, please contact:
Jaana Kurjenoja, Chief Economist, Finnish Commerce Federation, tel. +358 (0)40 820 5378, jaana.kurjenoja(at)kauppa.fi
Kari Luoto, Managing Director, Finnish Commerce Federation, tel. +358 (0) 400 688 708, kari.luoto(at)kauppa.fi